The Covid-19 thread.

airdronian

Radar Member
Clearly there are people who disagree - e.g. Costco Guy
I have a hard time understanding these people. The blond woman somewhere in the US at Target who filmed herself being a complete ass. And this one below, who also filmed and posted on social media. At least the public at large can see what morons they are.

 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
Here in Evanston IL just across the northern border of Chicago, there were no new cases yesterday. This is several weeks after our partial reopening, so an encouraging sign. Our beaches are open and restaurants have sidewalk seating, and a few that have the ability to open up a wall of windows have spaced out indoor seating. We ate in one of those near the open windows, during a torrential downpour... felt like an actual date instead of just sitting on the sidewalk. Nobody complains about wearing masks in stores or crowds, and people space out when walking past each other on the (wide) sidewalks). Generally its working as well as can be expected. I don't wear a mask when walking around except when I can't distance myself, and generally that's what others are doing. We're all getting along, which is a trait that I love about Evanston. It's drama-free. And I think that lack of drama is helping this community get through this as best it can.

The next couple of weeks will really determine much of our lives for the summer and fall. As cases spike elsewhere in the country, it all hinges on what happens with the case-death-rate. Is it really lower for some reason, or just lagging the spike by two weeks? Today it looked like the rate was catching up, sadly.
 

airdronian

Radar Member
Around here (provincially) we've been fairly consistent in new patients, except for the odd outbreak. Some unsettling news this morning though - one of the hospitals in Edmonton has declared a "full facility outbreak" and is not admitting patients. Appointments and day procedures all postponed, until they get things under control. Emergency services will be diverting to other hospitals.


I'm sure they're being very cautious. It doesn't take much imagination though, to think about what conditions could be like IF hospitals become overrun with patients, or that facilities become more and more inefficient due to lack of staff caused by becoming sick in the course of their duties.

Hopefully this situation resolves quickly.
 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
Around here (provincially) we've been fairly consistent in new patients, except for the odd outbreak. Some unsettling news this morning though - one of the hospitals in Edmonton has declared a "full facility outbreak" and is not admitting patients. Appointments and day procedures all postponed, until they get things under control. Emergency services will be diverting to other hospitals.


I'm sure they're being very cautious. It doesn't take much imagination though, to think about what conditions could be like IF hospitals become overrun with patients, or that facilities become more and more inefficient due to lack of staff caused by becoming sick in the course of their duties.

Hopefully this situation resolves quickly.
35 cases and 3 deaths related to one facility outbreak. I have to wonder how it's spreading? I've heard recently that some think most spread is by 'super spreaders' as opposed to it being generally equally distributed amongst people who have it giving it to others. Is it the super spreaders viral load? Do they talk really really loudly and have really humid breath? What is it? This thing is so exasperating. Doesn't register as even a cold on some, kills others. You'll hear of one BBQ getting over a dozen people sick. But then some spouses don't even catch it sleeping next to somebody with it.

Maybe it really is the 5G! (I'm kidding.....). But its definitely Bill Gates. That guy's shady, he's had the same haircut for 40 years and what's with his obsession with philanthropy and water safety? Normal people wallow in their wealth.
 

airdronian

Radar Member
35 cases and 3 deaths related to one facility outbreak. I have to wonder how it's spreading? I've heard recently that some think most spread is by 'super spreaders' as opposed to it being generally equally distributed amongst people who have it giving it to others. Is it the super spreaders viral load? Do they talk really really loudly and have really humid breath? What is it? This thing is so exasperating. Doesn't register as even a cold on some, kills others. You'll hear of one BBQ getting over a dozen people sick. But then some spouses don't even catch it sleeping next to somebody with it.

Maybe it really is the 5G! (I'm kidding.....). But its definitely Bill Gates. That guy's shady, he's had the same haircut for 40 years and what's with his obsession with philanthropy and water safety? Normal people wallow in their wealth.
I think the "how's it spreading" question is what they are trying to identify. If transmissions are happening within the hospital, then something needs to be fixed.
 

MikeyFresh

Moderator
Staff member
It doesn't take much imagination though, to think about what conditions could be like IF hospitals become overrun with patients, or that facilities become more and more inefficient due to lack of staff caused by becoming sick in the course of their duties.
It certainly doesn't, we were pretty much at that point at several NYC hospitals back in March/April, and unfortunately states like FL, TX, AZ, and CA are already or likely will be facing that shortly. 😷
 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
Yeah it doesn't take much imagination to extrapolate that if this current huge resurgence in cases is mostly young people that the older people they give it to, or have already given it to, will lag a bit behind them but in large numbers, and then hospital beds being taken up by them will be the next wave just behind that. They're better at caring for people now than two months ago, but that only applies until beds are exhausted.
 

MikeO

Active Member
For me the most frustrating part of this whole crisis has been that four months in there still doesn't seem to be consensus about whether or not the virus is a serious threat to the world or a flu like disease that kills a very small number of people who were basically at the end of life. I understand there are nutjobs and conspiracy theorists on all sides and that the internet has so polarized society that we now only seem to trust those who share our political ideologies but I am talking about reading well researched, well sourced scientific arguments that can't seem to come to a consensus. Today I read a very convincing article by a local scientist who argued that the school's need to reopen, the spread from young to old is nearly non existent and that the death rate seems to be trending towards less than the seasonal flu. Backed up by lots of studies and was extremely well reasoned. I am sure if I looked I could find an extremely well argued, scientifically researched argument that would tell us the world will end if we open up too quickly.

I can't remember a time when I have had so little faith in any institutions to figure out what is going on. The CDC in the US was, until recently, thought of as the world standard for disease control. Not anymore. Health Canada initially warned against wearing masks as it could contribute to getting sick. Now Toronto requires masks for indoor public spaces, but not outdoor public spaces.

If we stop trusting the so called experts what are we left with. Doing our own research on the cesspool that is the internet and forming beliefs that have no basis in fact. I have no idea what to believe anymore and to me that is a terrible thing for what may be a significant threat to our way of life. At the very least, the economy and the mental health of millions of people is at stake and at worst the physical health of tens of millions.
 

MikeyFresh

Moderator
Staff member
For me the most frustrating part of this whole crisis has been that four months in there still doesn't seem to be consensus about whether or not the virus is a serious threat to the world or a flu like disease that kills a very small number of people who were basically at the end of life. I understand there are nutjobs and conspiracy theorists on all sides and that the internet has so polarized society that we now only seem to trust those who share our political ideologies but I am talking about reading well researched, well sourced scientific arguments that can't seem to come to a consensus. Today I read a very convincing article by a local scientist who argued that the school's need to reopen, the spread from young to old is nearly non existent and that the death rate seems to be trending towards less than the seasonal flu. Backed up by lots of studies and was extremely well reasoned. I am sure if I looked I could find an extremely well argued, scientifically researched argument that would tell us the world will end if we open up too quickly.

I can't remember a time when I have had so little faith in any institutions to figure out what is going on. The CDC in the US was, until recently, thought of as the world standard for disease control. Not anymore. Health Canada initially warned against wearing masks as it could contribute to getting sick. Now Toronto requires masks for indoor public spaces, but not outdoor public spaces.

If we stop trusting the so called experts what are we left with. Doing our own research on the cesspool that is the internet and forming beliefs that have no basis in fact. I have no idea what to believe anymore and to me that is a terrible thing for what may be a significant threat to our way of life. At the very least, the economy and the mental health of millions of people is at stake and at worst the physical health of tens of millions.

Very well said, thats pretty much where I'm at too.

I've been back in the office since June 9th, limited staff, and we have to wear a mask everywhere except when sitting in our own personal office space. The building manager claims they installed HEPA filters in our HVAC system, I'm skeptical as to whether that actually happened, or if it did will they actually change the filters regularly.

The situation seems mostly under control in NY as compared to the March-May, however I still sometimes see people go in places without a mask... the deli, a pizzeria, even one guy in the grocery store the other day. The proprietors can't really police that situation very well, and they are mostly struggling (except the grocery store which is both doing brisk business and have raised their prices substantially on nearly everything), they don't want to turn away any business.

The new threat in this area seems to be people that left for Florida, Texas, Arizona, or California, and came back bringing the virus back with them. So they asked people returning from those areas to self quarantine, but surprise surprise, many did not and they have begun to re-spread the virus.
 

Wntrmute2

Not So Mediocre Member
Actually MikeO, there are very few scientists/medical experts that don't see this as a disaster. There is no longer a "very few" people dead and certainly not all at the end of their lives. I personally have had a fifty year old fried that worked with me in the operating room die a horrible death. I have seen 7 out of the 8 overflow patients (into our PACU0 die. Not all old, not all sickly. Even if it was less deadly - which I would dispute, than the flu, shouldn't we try and control it? Look at Italy for instance. Who are you to decide when we should stop trying to prevent death even in the elderly. I take care of many 80+ patients that are spry and "full of life"; who's families cherish them and are contributing to society with their wisdom and grace? I don't really mean that as an attack BTW.

One of the hallmarks of "experts" is that they are willing to change their minds when presented with contrary data. That doesn't make them weak or suspect. Unlike our current administration and their lackeys who choose to "stay the course" in the face of evidence, I do give credit to those few governors, Abbott for one, who can see the evidence and change his mind. This is a rare quality these days.
The CDC and the like in this country are being hamstrung buy their bosses who are subject to pressure from the administration. Why do you think that Anthony Fauci and his boss Francis Collins are so silent lately? Collins admitted in a NPR interview that every public appearance by the two of them must be approved by the White House and every written statement must be vetted as well. There is a campaign of disinformation by this administration who has one and only one goal and that is to win re-election. That fact that deaths and disease are occurring faster than election day, may, just may be the undoing of this disastrous plan of wishing it away.
 

Wntrmute2

Not So Mediocre Member
The whole mask thing irritates the shit out of me especially at work in the OR. All day long the OR staff wears their masks to protect the patients. Once in the break room, the circulating nurses and the surgical techs have them off and are seated cheek to jowl with each other. The nurse anesthetist too but to a lesser degree as we spread out a bit more. I just don't get it. I've mentioned it to management but they say they can't control the behavior even though there is a policy in place. I too sometimes lean into a conversation way too close but I am wearing my mask pretty much when I'm not eating.
The little corner store/gas station is completely mask free whenever I stop in which is rare.
Can we not help each other despite a tiny inconvenience? I guess not.
 

MikeO

Active Member
Actually MikeO, there are very few scientists/medical experts that don't see this as a disaster. There is no longer a "very few" people dead and certainly not all at the end of their lives. I personally have had a fifty year old fried that worked with me in the operating room die a horrible death. I have seen 7 out of the 8 overflow patients (into our PACU0 die. Not all old, not all sickly. Even if it was less deadly - which I would dispute, than the flu, shouldn't we try and control it? Look at Italy for instance. Who are you to decide when we should stop trying to prevent death even in the elderly. I take care of many 80+ patients that are spry and "full of life"; who's families cherish them and are contributing to society with their wisdom and grace? I don't really mean that as an attack BTW.

One of the hallmarks of "experts" is that they are willing to change their minds when presented with contrary data. That doesn't make them weak or suspect. Unlike our current administration and their lackeys who choose to "stay the course" in the face of evidence, I do give credit to those few governors, Abbott for one, who can see the evidence and change his mind. This is a rare quality these days.
The CDC and the like in this country are being hamstrung buy their bosses who are subject to pressure from the administration. Why do you think that Anthony Fauci and his boss Francis Collins are so silent lately? Collins admitted in a NPR interview that every public appearance by the two of them must be approved by the White House and every written statement must be vetted as well. There is a campaign of disinformation by this administration who has one and only one goal and that is to win re-election. That fact that deaths and disease are occurring faster than election day, may, just may be the undoing of this disastrous plan of wishing it away.

Certainly don't want to sound like I don't care about the 80 plus. My parents are both in their 80s and my dad would be especially susceptible as he has COPD. And of course we need to protect those who are most at risk of death. But the point I was trying to make is that what is frustrating is that four months into this, the public doesn't seem to have a trusted non-partisan source to look to for up to date scientific advice. Is the WHO that source, maybe or maybe they are protecting China. Is the CDC that source, maybe or maybe political pressure is forcing them not to speak truthfully. And I recognize that experts have to be willing to change their opinions as new evidence is discovered. It sounds like you have personal working contact with the disease, which most of us do not. I respect your experience as far more valid than opinions on the internet from those who have no real experience. That is what expertise should be. Real world experience, not talking heads from political parties with an agenda to protect political parties. And all sides do this in all countries.

Also, as i said I don't know what the right advice is. Maybe a total shutdown of society short of food and the basics of life is necessary. Maybe a normalized lifestyle would be the right choice. I guess I am saying that we used to trust our institutions and it seems that if ever there was a time that politicization and division must be done away with, this would seem to be that time.
 

Wntrmute2

Not So Mediocre Member
Certainly don't want to sound like I don't care about the 80 plus. My parents are both in their 80s and my dad would be especially susceptible as he has COPD. And of course we need to protect those who are most at risk of death. But the point I was trying to make is that what is frustrating is that four months into this, the public doesn't seem to have a trusted non-partisan source to look to for up to date scientific advice. Is the WHO that source, maybe or maybe they are protecting China. Is the CDC that source, maybe or maybe political pressure is forcing them not to speak truthfully. And I recognize that experts have to be willing to change their opinions as new evidence is discovered. It sounds like you have personal working contact with the disease, which most of us do not. I respect your experience as far more valid than opinions on the internet from those who have no real experience. That is what expertise should be. Real world experience, not talking heads from political parties with an agenda to protect political parties. And all sides do this in all countries.

Also, as i said I don't know what the right advice is. Maybe a total shutdown of society short of food and the basics of life is necessary. Maybe a normalized lifestyle would be the right choice. I guess I am saying that we used to trust our institutions and it seems that if ever there was a time that politicization and division must be done away with, this would seem to be that time.
Really good points! Personally I believe all the finger-pointing at China is to have a boogy-man to blame: especially considering WE ignored the problem for weeks.
We should let experts be experts and politicians be politicians. There was a Palm Beach public hearing where the public was lambasting the medical experts for suggesting masks to mitigate the spread. Shouting that the physician should have her credentials stripped and she should go back to medical school. In Lansing, the capital of Michigan, there have been public displays of guns, nooses and Nazi symbols as the anti-quarantiners and anti-mask wearing people waved the Confederate flag in a show of force. Unbelievable.
 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
What's happened with expertise in this country is that people no longer seek to learn what's happening, they seek to have what they want to believe reinforced. So if you want the disease to not be that deadly, you cherry pick the experts for the ones that say that..and if you want it to be the end of the world, you find the people saying its the end of the world. Most do that without any regard to the consensus of opinion, rather than trying to see if they're just looking at an outlier. Look at that 'plandemic' video that blew up a while back. So many people jumped on that because it was what they wanted to believe, instead of stepping back and taking an objective look at it and thinking, well, for this to actually be true perhaps hundreds of thousands of highly educated and well-meaning people in medicine/science/research would have to, instead, be not well meaning, part of some vast conspiracy, not talking about it, not leaking their master plan, and be coordinating it across language barriers, across nation states, and without a clear motive as to even WHY. But people just hop on it anyway instead of reaching for even the dullest Occam's razor, despite their being no logic to it, no reasoning, and every logical fallacy flashing red. Personally I don't understand it at all, I don't understand why somebody would choose to listen to this lady who sounded half drunk, was a 'doctor' who looked like she lived in an old trailer and went to the $7 barber... but maybe that's my own bias. I would think a respected doctor would manage a more convincing presentation.

Its difficult trying to be objective in a media landscape that has so embraced entertainment-news rather than actual news, but its not impossible to be at least somewhat aware of reality. I'm not without fault here, I was a bit more in the end of the world camp while now I'm more in the "this is really really terrible but there's absolutely no reason it had to be as terrible as it is, because other countries that have actual leadership have beaten it in ways we haven't even come close to".

Which reminds me, I've been meaning to read Tom Nichols' book "The death of expertise". Its about this subject, and this subject is largely why this country has an infection and death rate going up the slide instead of down it.
 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
On the other end of that is the media just absolutely debasing itself with sensationalist stupidity. I just looked at ABC News and this was their cover photo. "Oh no! We're all going to die! Our pets are going to die! After they give it to us!" Alas, no...the dog has it, and like all dogs that have had it, shows no symptoms and has shown no ability to give it to anybody else. They apparently take on the virus, and have a traceable amount of it but it doesn't do much of anything to them. But sure lets give it the #)*@#)$(@) main page.
Screen Shot 2020-07-10 at 11.20.23 AM.png
 

airdronian

Radar Member
I don't think there needs to be a consensus that the virus is a serious threat. We have the evidence to demonstrate that. The problem with today is that everyone with a computer can spew their viewpoint or support others that have a seriously flawed (IMO) view of the situation. Forty or fifty years ago ? I suspect the messaging about this pandemic would be significantly different.

Society (particularly in North America) is going to have to change how we do things a bit in order to minimize the loss of life. Unfortunately a fair chunk of the population has a peculiar view that they don't need to follow guidance, because they don't think they're at risk, or they have a problem with authority, or that feel they will "give up their freedom" if they don a mask.

Just look at Japan for an example. Look at the numbers. Their urban environments are as dense as anywhere else. But their society is accustomed to mask use when feeling ill. They are cognizant that they share their facilities and cities with others.

I just received an update from our local school district, concerning planning for September. We've already been polled on it. They're down to three options, one of which includes a return to remote learning. If there is any attendance within the schools, I am hoping they include mask requirements.

Much is said about youngsters not being as badly affected by the virus, and I am seeing reports that it's thought they don't transmit it very well, so that should aid a return to school. My opinion (fwiw) is that the pandemic and it's resultant research has been ongoing for just some months now, and aside from some best practices there isn't a lot that is really conclusive. I'd like to know how much specific scientific research has been conducted that demonstrates that children aren't good transmitters. Any parent of school age children knows these little buggers are germ factories when they go to school.

And I'd like to know the results of that research BEFORE my son brings it home. I'd be the one at risk here.
 

John Frum

Secret Society Member
My county has been designated a “Level 4” hotspot, and a county-by-county mask order was issued by Gov. DeWine a couple of days after my mayor issued a city-wide order.

Word from on high really seems to be helping persuade people to mask up - the rate was something like 90-95% maskless at Kroger last week.

I appreciated DeWine’s early attempt to take the epidemic seriously, but when pushback caused him to reverse course on a statewide mask order, his cowardice and weak leadership led directly to the bump we’re experiencing now.

If the plan was always to let the virus run rampant in Ohio until the cities’ hospitals were full, we could have skipped the stress and economic hardship of lockdown.

I heard today that there’s been two cases at my workplace.

I feel like death has been stalking around and peering in my windows all spring. It’s been a lot more complicated than just COVID, but certainly it’s difficult to have an uncertain abstract threat hanging above while so many more personal things go wrong. This annus horribilis just seems to keep picking up speed, and I’m bracing for whatever comes next. Fellas, if I wind up a statistic, it’s been a pleasure.
 
This is a worldwide pandemic. There's plenty of information out there that isn't suspect. I've seen some great videos with the Korean head of epidemiology. Likewise great information from the Germans... Basically you can look at any country with a good rate of success and see what they are saying. This administration like everything they do is politicizing the CDC. I trust Fauci and I trust Birx. So if I hear it from them I know it's most likely correct. I saw an interview a few days ago from the head of the FDA refusing to state Trumps lie of 99% was a lie.

We all know what the actual problem is. Correction. We all know WHO the actual problem is and it isn't the W.H.O.
 
This study just came out. A study of 17 million in the UK. The UK has very good universal healthcare, I lived there for decades and witnessed it first hand, so I think the relation between race/poverty and access to healthcare is far less pronounced than it is in the USA. It pretty much confirms the same data we got from the Chinese early on. Age is the biggest risk factor.

"Dr. Goldacre’s team found that patients older than 80 were at least 20 times more likely to die from Covid-19 than those in their 50s, and hundreds of times more likely to die than those below the age of 40. The scale of this relationship was “jaw-dropping,” Dr. Goldacre said."

 
Top