The Covid-19 thread.

Andyman

Junior Member
"We have seen the start of exponential growth," said Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.

I am trying to remember the last time that I noticed a mainstream US news source use the term, "exponential growth."

Quickly checking the NYT and WaPo I only can find: explosive growth, sudden growth, dramatic growth, rapid growth, mushrooming growth, snowballing growth, escalating growth, rocketing growth, skyrocketing growth, huge growth, & growing bigley.
Probably because it is the accurate term to describe any increase beyond simple singular replication.
I'm guessing they don't do the bacterial growth conquering the world or mousetrap and ping pong ball things anymore for kids...


 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
I remember seeing the mousetrap-pingpong thing last year when I first heard discussions about exponential growth (MY media mentioned it ;)). I do think that despite how bad it got in the US it never actually reached the worst it could be.

I'm a bit..divided?.. about the way the current situation is being discussed in the media as I feel they're addicted to alarm especially with their drug of choice of the last 5 years being off the market so to speak. The case rates -are- climbing from where they were a few weeks ago, but the death rate..is still falling. Which is what you'd expect in a population where the most vulnerable are increasingly vaccinated. Maybe this sounds harsh but I'm not really that concerned about the people who get this thing and then get over it a week or two later. They're still talking about case rates as if nothing has changed, and the vaccination of the majority of people over age 65 changes things a LOT.
 

Wntrmute2

Not So Mediocre Member
I remember seeing the mousetrap-pingpong thing last year when I first heard discussions about exponential growth (MY media mentioned it ;)). I do think that despite how bad it got in the US it never actually reached the worst it could be.

I'm a bit..divided?.. about the way the current situation is being discussed in the media as I feel they're addicted to alarm especially with their drug of choice of the last 5 years being off the market so to speak. The case rates -are- climbing from where they were a few weeks ago, but the death rate..is still falling. Which is what you'd expect in a population where the most vulnerable are increasingly vaccinated. Maybe this sounds harsh but I'm not really that concerned about the people who get this thing and then get over it a week or two later. They're still talking about case rates as if nothing has changed, and the vaccination of the majority of people over age 65 changes things a LOT.
What "drug of choice" are you referring to John?
 
They're still talking about case rates as if nothing has changed, and the vaccination of the majority of people over age 65 changes things a LOT.
High case rates mean greater potential for new variants, against which the current vaccines may or may not be effective.
That's the problem.
 

MikeyFresh

Moderator
Staff member
High case rates mean greater potential for new variants, against which the current vaccines may or may not be effective.
That's the problem.
That is definitely a major concern, and it looks like at a bare minimum we'll all likely need some kind of booster shot next fall/winter or whenever available, to supplement the existing vaccines.

Certainly the best route in the meantime is to continue making every effort to slow the case rate and spread.
 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
High case rates mean greater potential for new variants, against which the current vaccines may or may not be effective.
That's the problem.
But seeing the media reaction of late, its not about that. They just want to keep the drama-train rolling. I'm not saying that we're out of the woods, or that this is even almost over. There's a long way to go, but we're on a good path. Cases are going up because its getting warmer, and people are getting lax. Deaths are going down because the most vulnerable are well on their way to being vaccinated. The new variants, already in the environment, are spreading faster, too... but deaths aren't following suit as, again, the vaccines were targeted at the most vulnerable groups.

I, again, just see a continuation of the politicization of this whole thing on both sides. On one end all efforts to reopen are bad bad bad. On the other, all efforts to still maintain precautions are bad bad bad. The truth is in the middle, but because of the media-boxes the algorithms put us each in, we'll never get the middle.
 
But seeing the media reaction of late, its not about that. They just want to keep the drama-train rolling. I'm not saying that we're out of the woods, or that this is even almost over. There's a long way to go, but we're on a good path. Cases are going up because its getting warmer, and people are getting lax. Deaths are going down because the most vulnerable are well on their way to being vaccinated. The new variants, already in the environment, are spreading faster, too... but deaths aren't following suit as, again, the vaccines were targeted at the most vulnerable groups.

I, again, just see a continuation of the politicization of this whole thing on both sides. On one end all efforts to reopen are bad bad bad. On the other, all efforts to still maintain precautions are bad bad bad. The truth is in the middle, but because of the media-boxes the algorithms put us each in, we'll never get the middle.
It's tough because unfortunately that's what sells. And they are all in it to make money, so they have to keep the drama train chugging to keep viewers, listeners, and readers coming back. And then you get the clickbait online that by giving a story a provocative title they get their click even if the story is crap and the person who clicked doesn't bother to read it. I haven't watched or listened to any broadcast news in a long time, except maybe I catch PBS NewsHour sometimes when my wife has it on.
 
But seeing the media reaction of late, its not about that. They just want to keep the drama-train rolling. I'm not saying that we're out of the woods, or that this is even almost over. There's a long way to go, but we're on a good path. Cases are going up because its getting warmer, and people are getting lax. Deaths are going down because the most vulnerable are well on their way to being vaccinated. The new variants, already in the environment, are spreading faster, too... but deaths aren't following suit as, again, the vaccines were targeted at the most vulnerable groups.
All it takes is one new, vaccine-resistant variant and we are off to the races all over again, which could conceivably mean those already vaccinated could once again be every bit as vulnerable as they ever were. This strikes me as something worth clanging the alarm over. Loudly, repeatedly. Again and again.

High cases numbers present a real danger to all of us. This is not sensationalism, it's the truth.
 

airdronian

Radar Member
High case rates mean greater potential for new variants, against which the current vaccines may or may not be effective.
That's the problem.
Variants. Like earlier in the pandemic where we'd see experiences in Europe, and then North America following the same trends. It's been written that where the British variant takes hold it becomes the dominant strain.

Reports from Ontario are not particularly good: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-ontario-1.5968720

TL;DR

"The briefing note outlines that the variants are associated with a more than 60 per cent increased risk of hospitalization, a doubled risk of admission to intensive care, and a 56 per cent increased risk of death."
 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
I haven't watched or listened to any broadcast news in a long time, except maybe I catch PBS NewsHour sometimes when my wife has it on.
I quit it before the end of last year. It wasn't cold turkey at first but now I'm totally free of it. I figured it was a good time to just turn it off. I get my news from a few publications I trust, as I don't want to just be in the dark, but nobody in my social media circles shares any sort of sensationalist news on either end of the political spectrum (anymore..its like we all got sick of it at once).

After I cut off the broadcast and cable news, as well as the stuff that I knew was just feeding me my own beliefs back to me... yeah, I feel a lot better about the world.
 
Variants. Like earlier in the pandemic where we'd see experiences in Europe, and then North America following the same trends. It's been written that where the British variant takes hold it becomes the dominant strain.

Reports from Ontario are not particularly good: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-ontario-1.5968720

TL;DR

"The briefing note outlines that the variants are associated with a more than 60 per cent increased risk of hospitalization, a doubled risk of admission to intensive care, and a 56 per cent increased risk of death."

Not good if your vaccination rates remain low. But latest data from the U.K., while not terrific is still much better than it was. Remember they decided to get as many people as possible the first shot of the vaccine.

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I quit it before the end of last year. It wasn't cold turkey at first but now I'm totally free of it. I figured it was a good time to just turn it off. I get my news from a few publications I trust, as I don't want to just be in the dark, but nobody in my social media circles shares any sort of sensationalist news on either end of the political spectrum (anymore..its like we all got sick of it at once).

After I cut off the broadcast and cable news, as well as the stuff that I knew was just feeding me my own beliefs back to me... yeah, I feel a lot better about the world.

After repeatedly making it clear that I didn't think social media was where repeated political discussions should happen (if I invited you to my house and every time you came over you just ranted about politics, you think I would invite you back?) I simply blocked people from my feeds. And if they crossed a line to what I considered to be a racist rant, I "unfriended" them and let them know why. Really cleaned up my social media, and I don't miss those people one bit. I also just now read news so as to be informed, but it is from only a few sources I trust.
 

JohnVF

Administrator
Staff member
After repeatedly making it clear that I didn't think social media was where repeated political discussions should happen (if I invited you to my house and every time you came over you just ranted about politics, you think I would invite you back?) I simply blocked people from my feeds. And if they crossed a line to what I considered to be a racist rant, I "unfriended" them and let them know why. Really cleaned up my social media, and I don't miss those people one bit. I also just now read news so as to be informed, but it is from only a few sources I trust.
The annoying thing to me now is, after unfollowing/unfriending the problem people, how much Facebook, Flipboard (a news aggregator I use) etc is still OBSESSED with feeding me controversy that it digs up, things that piss me off, that people I know commented on or whatever. With Flipboard I constantly kept trying to tune it. Less of this, less of that, stop showing me this. And it STILL would show me crap that was biased on either end. Facebook finds whatever friends have commented on that's political, and shoves it in my face like i want to be a part of it. They feed on this shit and are selling us our own unhappiness, because people click more on what they hate than what they like.
 
The annoying thing to me now is, after unfollowing/unfriending the problem people, how much Facebook, Flipboard (a news aggregator I use) etc is still OBSESSED with feeding me controversy that it digs up, things that piss me off, that people I know commented on or whatever. With Flipboard I constantly kept trying to tune it. Less of this, less of that, stop showing me this. And it STILL would show me crap that was biased on either end. Facebook finds whatever friends have commented on that's political, and shoves it in my face like i want to be a part of it. They feed on this shit and are selling us our own unhappiness, because people click more on what they hate than what they like.
Yeah that’s the one thing still really irritating about Facebook, showing me stories that people commented on. I keep deleting them without reading the comment or story, but wish I could block them.
 
I haven't done mainstream social media in years, other than having work accounts where I have to log in and create API keys for things I need to work on. But I'm thinking that a lot of those feeds can be blocked with ad blockers. You can essentially right-click an item, choose "Block element..." (if using uBlock Origin), then adjust the sliders until the offending block is eliminated. I have an easy time of it because I know what to look for with the sliders, or selecting from the list of code to block, but I've easily blocked many annoying things that aren't exactly ads.

I'm a bit..divided?.. about the way the current situation is being discussed in the media as I feel they're addicted to alarm .....
Addicted to it indeed. They must feel that working us into a panic keeps us hungry for more news, to keep us addicted. And they know many readers will take their own opinions, for or against, and plaster them on social media. Which makes things even worse.

And that's not to say we may have an alarmist or two in high places in the government, adding fuel to the fire.

Cases are going up because its getting warmer, and people are getting lax.
That and the college kids all partying for St. Patrick's Day. I just read an article yesterday how we're now about the right time away from March 17th (nearly two weeks) and shows pictures of them partying (without a mask in sight) that has caused a surge here. The 20-29 age group is the largest one with current infections. And I can even circle back around to the, um, polarization--the counties to the north of us (in the "thumb") who, let's say, voted a certain way are the counties that are seeing big spikes in cases. (The news site mlive.com was the source.) I don't feel that is a coincidence--the virus doesn't care which way a person leans on the political spectrum. But the split is between those who take precautions vs. those who would rather take their chances of catching this "flu" and throw caution to the wind.

"The briefing note outlines that the variants are associated with a more than 60 per cent increased risk of hospitalization, a doubled risk of admission to intensive care, and a 56 per cent increased risk of death."
I know our death rates are dropping for now. However, what I fear a little are variants. Not the variants we have now, but any virus will mutate over time, and COVID has lived up to that expectation already. What's to say something far more deadly doesn't mutate out of the variants circulating right now? That is why it is even more important to take precautions now, limited exposure and get vaccinated. The more cases out there, the more chances this thing has to mutate. So while the death rate is dropping, just having more people get infected increases that risk of new mutations.

But I'm not losing sleep over it.

We'll definitely need boosters, and I'm OK with that. I'll have a booster every year or two and feel funny for 24 hours if it keeps me out of the hospital or the pine box. Everyone in my close circles is getting vaccinated and taking precautions, so things are definitely looking more positive now.
 
So one side effect of the vaccine is having to listen to my wife complain about a sore arm like she’s been actually shot in it, instead having had a shot in it.
My sore arm lasted less than 48 hours, and wasn’t near as bad as a tetanus shot sore arm.
 
My arm was sore for about 24 hours, then, back to normal. Starting on the 8th day after the jab, had a bit of a running nose. That lasted for about 3 days.

My dear wife was not thrilled about getting the two-dose Moderna or Pfizer. A few days ago, Texas created a website with a map showing "real-time" vaccine types, availabilities, facilities and contact info. Spent some time clicking and calling around. Found and made appointment for the one-shot Johnson and Johnson for her next week. :)
 
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